FXUS62 KRAH 260911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
403 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

High pressure will move in from the west today, then move offshore
later tonight and Monday. A warm front will approach from the south
late Monday, then move north of the region Tuesday.


As of 403 AM SUNDAY...

Sunny and chilly weather will prevail today given the continental polar
high pressure that will build overhead later today and this evening.
Winds will be around 10 mph today from the NW before becoming
light and variable. Sunny skies and very dry air (dew points in the teens
through the day) will lead to highs warming into the mid to upper
50s most areas, with lower 60s around Fayetteville.

Clear skies early tonight with the surface ridge still overhead will
lead to excellent radiational cooling. However, lows tonight may
occur well before the diurnal norm around daybreak - depending
on the timing of increasing cloudiness overnight. The latest satellite
and data trends indicate the slower model guidance such as the NAM
and EC may be favored over the GFS. Regardless, the NE zones
should be coldest as they will be last to see clouds, with the SW first.
Lows in the 30s (30 NE and upper 30s south) expected.


As of 403 AM SUNDAY...

We trimmed back POP for Monday night to very low chances due to the
drying up trend in the models. The warm frontal energy and moisture
is expected to be directed more northward up the west side of the
Appalachians, with some lingering ridging over central and eastern NC
into Monday night. The skies will become mostly cloudy, but mostly
"dead" clouds (not precipitation producing). Highs generally in the 60s
with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.


As of 355 AM Sunday...

A warming trend will continue early next week, peaking on Wednesday
in advance of a strong cold front. However, deep southwesterly flow
early to mid next week will allow for plenty of moisture/clouds
along with periods of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through
Wednesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany
the strong cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
Deep layer shear will be impressive with this system, on the order
of 50-60 kts, but diurnal timing will be poor with any convective
line moving across the area overnight. Nonetheless, we should at
least see some storms, with at least a small severe threat
(depending on the amount of instability). High temps Tuesday and
Wednesday are expected to generally be in the 70s, with possibly
some lower 80s on Wednesday across southern and eastern portions of
the area. Low temps will follow a similar trend, well above normal,
in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday morning.

Dry weather is generally expected behind the front as surface high
pressure is expected to initially build into the area, before a
reinforcing dry cold front moves across the area on Friday. High
temps behind the initial front late next week are expected to be in
the 60s. High Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to
near 60 south. Low are expected to be in the 30s late week into the


As of 1220 AM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR will continue for the 24 hour TAF period,
high confidence, as surface high pressure moves across the region.
This will result in decreasing winds speeds early this morning out
of the northwest, generally into the 5 to 10 kt range, with clear

Northwesterly winds in the 6 to 11 kt range to start the day (with
possibly a few wind gusts into the teens during the morning hours)
will become light and variable by mid to late afternoon into the
evening, with mostly sunny/mostly clear skies expected (only some
high thin clouds possible).

Outlook: High pressure will move east and offshore Sun night, which
will bring VFR conditions through Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR
conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps
into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an
increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially
dusk through dawn. A cold front passage late Wed night or early Thu
will bring a better chance for showers then.





NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion