FXUS62 KRAH 270737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
338 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

A cold front will approach from the west today, crossing central NC
late tonight. High pressure will build into the region Friday, and
persist over the area through the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 338 AM Thursday...

A s/w crossing the Great Lakes this morning will lift east-ne into
New England tonight. The cold front associated with this wave will
approach from the northwest today, crossing central NC
overnight.Southerly flow ahead of the front will advect a
marginally moist air mass into our region though moisture basically
confined to the lowest 10k ft. In addition, best lift associated
with the s/w lifts well north of our region. While expect to see an
increase in cloudiness, shower coverage will be limited to the far
west-nw late in the day, after 20Z. A few showers will progress east
through the Piedmont/northern coastal plain during the evening/late
night hours. Forcing weak at best leading to rainfall amounts less
than a tenth of an inch with most places likely only receiving a
trace or an hundredth.

Warm southerly flow will aid to push temperatures into the 70-75
degree range this afternoon in spite of the thickening cloud cover.
The sfc winds will be breezy with gusts 15-20 mph probable.

Tonight, sfc cold front will advance east across central NC between
06Z-12Z. Northwest flow behind the front will advect a drier air
mass into the region. This arrival of the drier coupled with the
downslope component of the low level wind will aid to decrease
cloudiness nw-se toward daybreak. Expect the clearing to initiate
in the Triad around 06Z, reaching our eastern periphery shortly
after daybreak. Min temps on the mild side due to the low level
mixing and extensive cloudiness. Min temps lower 50s nw to the mid-
upper 50s se.


.SHORT TERM /Friday and Friday night/...
As of 338 AM Thursday...

High pressure will build into central NC Friday and Friday night in
the wake of the exiting cold front. Low level cold air advection
brief as core of the cold air will slide to our north, just brushing
our far north-northeast counties. Where clouds are still prevalent
early Friday will depart by mid day with sunny skies expected
areawide Friday afternoon. Clear skies and near calm winds Friday
night will lead to excellent nocturnal cooling conditions. High
temperatures near 70 far north to the mid-upper 70s south. Min temps
Friday night upper 40s northeast to near 50-lower 50s south.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 304 AM Thursday...

Dry and warm conditions on Saturday as high pressure sinks south
across the region. Shortwave will cross the Mid Atlantic on Sunday
bringing a weak dry cold front through NC late Sunday/early Monday.
Expect a dry passage with upper level westerly winds and limited
moisture return. Ahead of the front, southwesterly flow and
increasing low level thicknesses will support temperatures near 80
degrees. Surface high pressure will move in to the region Monday
through Wednesday, as upper level ridging will builds over the
Southeast. This will support continuing dry conditions and above
average temperatures through midweek.


.AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Increasing southerly low level flow will advect a moderately moist
air mass into central NC today. This will aid in the development of
patchy fog and areas of low clouds around daybreak. The occurrence
near any one of the TAF sites is still highly uncertain. The
probability does appear to be greater in vicinity of KRWI and KFAY,
and possibly less so near the Triad. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist through this evening.

An approaching surface cold front will result in breezy southerly
winds with gusts near 20kts probable. This surface front will cross
central NC late tonight, primarily between 06Z-12Z Friday. Enough
moisture and lift will exist to support a few showers though VFR
conditions are expected to persist.

High pressure will build into our region in the wake of the
departing front Friday. This weather system will maintain control of
our weather through the weekend.






NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion