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000
ABNT20 KNHC 172356
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the far
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17
 the center of EDOUARD was located near 37.8, -51.2
 with movement NE at 26 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 958 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 26

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 172035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED BY
LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 26

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 172034
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N  51.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 150SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 310SE 270SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N  51.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N  52.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 110SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N  51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 172035
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite
appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming
convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye.  The initial intensity
is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the
higher satellite classifications.  A combination of cooling waters
and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening
trend throughout the 120-hour period.  Post-tropical transition is
indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard
moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected
to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of
the global models.

Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23.  A gradual
turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward
speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered
by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.
Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days
while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.
Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track
guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,
apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from
the mid-level northerly flow.  Consequently, the latest forecast is
shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably
won't be much of Edouard by that point.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 37.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014


000
FONT11 KNHC 172035
PWSAT1
                                                                    
HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014               
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  12(25)   X(25)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics


Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 20:36:40 GMT

Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 01:30:43 GMT