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000
ABNT20 KNHC 021743
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
late Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Terry

Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)

...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2
 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.0, -96.5
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...CENTER OF DOLLY REFORMING TO THE SOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 96.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF DOLLY IS REFORMING SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST.  DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007
MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 021431
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  96.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  96.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  95.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  96.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021438
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection.  Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels.  Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity.  Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories.  The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  6   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34 22   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
LA PESCA MX    34 19  32(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
LA PESCA MX    50  1   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LA PESCA MX    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics


Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 17:59:22 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 15:04:47 GMT