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000
ABNT20 KNHC 222331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Jul 22
 the center of TWO was located near 13.4, -51.4
 with movement WNW at 18 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 230235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 51.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H.  A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 230235
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  51.4W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  51.4W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  50.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.7N  53.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N  57.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N  61.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N  65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 230236
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today.  Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.

The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear.  These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening.  The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt.  An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.4N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 15.9N  65.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014


000
FONT12 KNHC 230236
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014               
0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression TWO Graphics


Tropical Depression TWO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 02:37:28 GMT

Tropical Depression TWO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Jul 2014 03:04:45 GMT