Tropical Cyclone Activity
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
000
WTNT35 KNHC 070233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA
ALGODONES MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
OBSERVING SITE IN MALAQUITE BEACH TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST TO 47 MPH...
76 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
000
WTNT25 KNHC 070231
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA
ALGODONES MEXICO.
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 97.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 97.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 97.2W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 97.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO
AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE
FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333
UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56
KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK
WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL
SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
TEXAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT
RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.5N 97.5W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
000
FONT15 KNHC 070231
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 13 31 40 72 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 26 54 54 55 27 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 72 32 16 5 1 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 1 X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
AUSTIN TX 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 18 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Issued at 840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:34:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 03:07:29 GMT
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 06 Sep 2010 20:51:59 GMT
Issued at 932 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
Issued at 835 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:33:22 GMT
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:30:48 GMT
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:30:48 GMT
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:30:48 GMT
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 03:09:03 GMT
GIS Data last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2010 03:09:13 GMT
GIS Data last updated Mon, 06 Sep 2010 20:52:33 GMT
GIS Data last updated Mon, 06 Sep 2010 20:53:09 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...AND THAT THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HERMINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HERMINE
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
