Tropical Cyclone Activity
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 17
the center of TWO was located near 16.7, -88.9
with movement WNW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
000
WTNT32 KNHC 180242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN
MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
000
WTNT22 KNHC 180242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.6W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 88.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
000
WTNT42 KNHC 180243
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT
ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW
CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25
KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS
INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
000
FONT12 KNHC 180242
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 27 31 34 44 56 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 78 57 41 31 32 22 NA
TROPICAL STORM 18 16 28 33 23 22 NA
HURRICANE X X 1 2 2 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X 1 2 2 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 25KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13)
FRONTERA MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:43:02 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:04:44 GMT
