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000
ABNT20 KNHC 011137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located northwest of the northwestern Cape Verde
Islands.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for gradual development of this system through the weekend
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

...FRED MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
 As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 1
 the center of FRED was located near 18.2, -26.5
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 10A

Issued at 800 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011150
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
800 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

...FRED MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 26.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The meteorological service of the Cape Verde Islands has
discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 26.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will
continue to move away from the northwestern Cape Verde Islands
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall will be diminishing across the northwestern Cape
Verde Islands this morning as Fred continues to move away from the
Cape Verde Islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO VICENTE...SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  26.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  26.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  25.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.8N  27.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.7N  29.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.3N  30.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N  32.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.3N  35.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.7N  38.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N  40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  26.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010849
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

After a brief convective hiatus between about 0000-0200 UTC, deep
convection has redeveloped over the center of Fred and also in the
northern semicircle. Several passive microwave satellite images
indicate that Fred's low-level center is a little south of the
previous advisory track, due to southerly vertical wind shear
displacing most of the convection to the north of the center.
However, that same imagery also indicated that Fred still has a
low-level circulation that is quite robust, including a nearly
closed 20 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based
on a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt
from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt based on microwave fixes.
Fred is expected to move between west-northwest and northwest for
the next 72 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone
gradually builds westward. After that time, a turn toward the
north-northwest and north is forecast due to a deep-layer trough
currently over eastern Canada that is expected to dig southeastward
over the central Atlantic and erode the ridge. The NHC model
guidance is in decent agreement on this developing pattern change.
However, there are significant differences in the model solutions
with the HWRF, GFS, and GFDL models keeping Fred stronger and
making the northward turn sooner, whereas the weaker solution
models like the UKMET and ECMWF take a weaker and more vertically
shallow cyclone farther west before turning it northward.
The official forecast track is a little south of the previous
advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position,
and follows a blend of the weaker UKMET and ECMWF solutions.

Fred is expected to gradually weaken throughout the forecast
period as the cyclone moves into an environment of increasing
southwesterly vertical wind in excess of 20 kt and drier and
more stable air, and over SSTs of near 26 deg C. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, as well as
the consensus model IVCN.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 18.0N  26.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 18.8N  27.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.7N  29.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 20.3N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 21.0N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 22.3N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 23.7N  38.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 26.0N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015


000
FONT11 KNHC 010849
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics


Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 11:51:37 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 09:07:47 GMT